The future stealth fighters of Morocco and Algeria that should worry Spain

When designing an air defense system, any country must take into account the capabilities of its potential threats.

The US Department of Defense sets a deadline for Spain to acquire the F-35B fighter
The Commander of the Aircraft Flotilla of the Spanish Navy speaks clearly about the F-35

The strategic partnership between Algeria and Russia

In Spain, there is a belief that the Russian threat, being so far away, does not affect us. However, in terms of air defense, this threat can be present in the form of one of its most advanced products and through one of its allies. As both countries confirmed in 2023, Algeria and Russia have a "strategic partnership" that could end up becoming dangerous for the already fragile stability of North Africa and for Spain's national security.

Until two years ago, Spain and Algeria had a friendly relationship that included cooperation in anti-terrorist matters. However, Pedro Sánchez's decision to give in to Morocco on the Western Sahara issue has cooled relations between Spain and Algeria, to the extent that the African country decided to suspend the Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighborliness and Cooperation signed with Spain in 2002, during the mandate of Jose Maria Aznar.

Algeria plans to receive Russian Su-57 stealth fighter in 2028

In this sense, and regardless of whether it tries to redirect the relationship with that country, Spain should prepare for the worst. And the worst, in the case of that African country, takes the form of a fighter plane. Algeria plans to receive Russian Sukhoi Su-57 stealth fighters in 2028, becoming the first African user of this fifth-generation aircraft. The country has already signed a $2 billion contract for a total of 14 stealth aircraft. That's not a lot of planes, but if Spain and Algeria were to ever come into conflict, those fighters would be a problem.

We should add to this that Algeria has maintained a close relationship with Moscow since Soviet times. Already at that time, the USSR provided Algeria with a fleet of 89 MiG-25 fighters, faster than any Spanish jet fighter of yesterday or today. Today these aircraft are still in service, along with more modern Russian fighters, such as 58 Sukhoi Su-30s and 54 MiG-29s, and 43 Sukhoi Su-24 attack aircraft.

Based on this arsenal of the Algerian Air Force, the Su-57 will be the icing on the cake of the Algerian threat to Spain, a cherry on top to which must be added 8 regiments of long-range surface-to-air missiles (SAM) S-400 Triumf, another 8 regiments of long-range SAM S-300PMU2 and 108 medium-range SAM launchers Pantsir-S1. That's without even mentioning its already abundant land and naval arsenal.

Morocco aims to buy American F-35 stealth fighter

As if Algeria were not enough, Spain has another no less problematic neighbor to the south. Although both countries maintain good relations and have a common ally (the United States), Morocco has been displaying its aspirations for Spanish territories such as the cities of Ceuta and Melilla, the Canary Islands, the rock of Vélez de la Gomera, the Alhucemas islands, the Chafarinas islands and the Perejil islet. These aspirations were reflected in March in a complaint by a Moroccan organization to the UN. Against the backdrop of these claims, Morocco is using illegal immigration in a hybrid war against Spain, the same strategy that Belarus is using against Lithuania and Poland.

Adding to the threat of future Algerian Su-57s is the fact that Morocco is hoping to buy the American F-35 Lightening II stealth fighter. At the moment, this sale has not been authorized or finalized. Morocco's main interest in the F-35 is to have an aircraft that is on par with the future Algerian Su-57s, as the two countries have had a hostile relationship for decades, with Algeria openly supporting the POLISARIO Front, which is demanding the independence of Western Sahara. The problem is that in the future, Morocco could also use these stealth aircraft against Spain.

It should be noted that the Moroccan military threat to Spain is less than many Spaniards think. The Spanish Armed Forces are considerably superior to the Moroccan ones in all aspects. To this must be added that a Moroccan attack against the aforementioned Spanish territories would mobilize aid from NATO allies for Spain, so that Morocco would have to face the Atlantic Alliance and not just one of its members.

For the moment, the problem that Morocco faces in purchasing the F-35 is fundamentally economic: it is a very expensive aircraft, and its acquisition would weaken the resources available in that country for other weapons systems. However, the possibility that Morocco ends up receiving the F-35 should not be disregarded in Spain, since it would put our country in a delicate situation.

Spain will not have stealth fighters before 2040

Currently, Spain does not have any stealth aircraft and does not plan to receive any in the short or medium term. Its air defence relies on Eurofighters and EF-18M Hornets, two fourth-generation fighters. At the moment, Spain is involved in a sixth-generation fighter project, the FCAS, but the forecasts are that it will enter service in 2040 at the earliest, if the already traditional delays of defence systems built by joint European projects do not occur. If Algeria and Morocco received their stealth fighters by the end of this decade, Spain would be at a disadvantage for years.

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Photos: Anna Zvereva / mil.ru / U.S. Air Force / U.S. Navy.