{"id":48100,"date":"2022-07-24T07:38:40","date_gmt":"2022-07-24T05:38:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/?p=48100"},"modified":"2025-07-24T01:29:55","modified_gmt":"2025-07-23T23:29:55","slug":"five-months-of-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-the-facts-that-indicate-who-is-losing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/2022\/07\/24\/five-months-of-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-the-facts-that-indicate-who-is-losing\/","title":{"rendered":"Five months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine: the facts that indicate who is losing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Today marks five months since the start of the current Russian invasion of Ukraine, an invasion that began with very ambitious goals.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p><rel><a href=\"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/2022\/07\/14\/ukraine-has-already-destroyed-more-than-500-russian-army-tanks-in-21-weeks-of-invasion\/\">Ukraine has already destroyed more than 500 Russian Army tanks in 21 weeks of invasion<\/a><\/rel><br \/>\n<rel><a href=\"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/2022\/05\/09\/ukraine-exhibits-the-tanks-captured-from-the-russians-and-now-used-against-the-invaders\/\">Ukraine exhibits the tanks captured from the Russians and now used against the invaders<\/a><\/rel><\/p>\n<p><big>Putin wanted to seize all of Ukraine and turn it into a puppet of Russia<\/big><\/p>\n<p>On the first day of the invasion, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/2022\/02\/24\/russia-attacks-ukraine-on-a-large-scale-free-world-must-now-confront-the-criminal-putin\/\">Vladimir Putin himself outlined his goals: to \"demilitarize\" and \"denazify\" Ukraine<\/a>, which, translating from the Kremlin's propaganda language into common language, meant that <strong>the Russian dictator wanted to take over the entire country and turn it into into a Russian puppet.<\/strong> That meant decapitating the Ukrainian government and putting a Moscow-appointed government in its place. To that end, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pravda.com.ua\/rus\/news\/2022\/02\/25\/7325699\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Russia launched airborne forces at Hostomel Airport, in Kiev<\/a>, ostensibly to control the Ukrainian capital and secure a key point for a larger-scale airborne landing.<\/p>\n<p><big>The failure of the taking of Kiek by the Russians<\/big><\/p>\n<p>However, <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Battle_of_Hostomel\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Russia lost the Battle of Hostomel<\/a>. Following the Ukrainian counterattack, the Russian forces were defeated at that airport and forced to withdraw. At the end of March, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/2022\/03\/24\/the-figures-and-the-situation-of-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-one-month-after-its-start\/\">in just one month, the Russian invasion had already caused more civilian casualties than the war in the Donbass in 5 years<\/a>. That had been one of the excuses used by the Kremlin to justify the invasion, launching <a href=\"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/2022\/03\/20\/data-against-the-hoax-that-accuses-ukraine-of-committing-a-genocide-in-the-donbas\/\">the hoax that Ukraine was a \"genocide\" in Donbass<\/a> (<a href=\"https:\/\/ecodiario.eleconomista.es\/global\/noticias\/696155\/08\/08\/Putin-pide-investigacion-sobre-genocidio-en-Osetia-del-Sur.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">a hoax that Putin had already launched against Georgia<\/a> to justify the Russian invasion of that country in 2008). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/2022\/03\/25\/russia-assumes-its-failure-in-ukraine-and-affirms-that-it-will-withdraw-to-donbas\/\">On March 25, after a month of invasion, Russia accepted its failure and withdrew from northern Ukraine<\/a>, ending its offensive against Kiev.<\/p>\n<p><big>The few and costly advances of the Russians in the Donbass<\/big><\/p>\n<p>Since then, <strong>Russia has concentrated its military action on three fronts:<\/strong> conquering eastern Ukraine, launching indiscriminate air strikes against the civilian population in the rest of the country, and blocking the export of Ukrainian grain. <strong>To this day, the Russian offensive in the Donbass is stalled<\/strong>, after making very small gains at very high costs. The attacks against the civilian population and the blockade of grain exports, with the consequent risk of global famine, <strong>have only served to convey the image of Russia as a terrorist state<\/strong> that believes that anything goes, including war crimes, to obtain some success in an invasion that does not achieve its objectives.<\/p>\n<p><big>Russia is leaving the prestige of its armed forces on the floor<\/big><\/p>\n<p>In addition to not fulfilling its military objectives, the so-called \"demilitarization\" is further away than ever. <strong>The invasion has prompted several Western countries to send military aid to Ukraine<\/strong>, an unprecedented aid since World War II. To make matters worse, militarily Russia has shown that it was <strong>an overrated power<\/strong>. It has shown that her military hardware is outdated, its troops are unmotivated and ill-prepared, its logistics are a mess, and its military doctrine is out of date.<strong> With this invasion, Putin has shattered the prestige of his armed forces.<\/strong> A prestige further damaged by the cases of war crimes, rape and looting committed by the Russians in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p><big>Russia has had more deaths in 5 months than it had in Afghanistan in 10 years<\/big><\/p>\n<p>As for the figures of the war, this Friday <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/senior-us-official-hundreds-russian-casualties-daily-ukraine\/31955422.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the US has estimated that 15,000 Russian soldiers have died and 45,000 have been wounded<\/a>. These are figures that lower the estimates published by Ukraine, but are still huge. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/2022\/03\/03\/russia-had-as-many-dead-in-ukraine-in-a-single-week-as-in-afghanistan-in-4-months\/\">During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (1979-1989), the invaders had 14,453 dead and 53,753 wounded<\/a>. Thus, <strong>Russia would have more deaths in Ukraine in 5 months than in Afghanistan in 10 years.<\/strong> Let us remember that the invasion of Afghanistan ended in Soviet failure.<\/p>\n<p><big>The Russians have lost 24% of their soldiers and 33.8% of their active tanks<\/big><\/p>\n<p>The material losses are also considerable. The website <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oryxspioenkop.com\/2022\/02\/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Oryxspioenkop.com<\/a>, which has been documenting with images the losses of both sides since February 24, indicates today that <strong>Russia has already lost 4,794 military vehicles, including 882 tanks<\/strong>, 272 of which have been captured by the Ukrainians. Some think that such a figure is irrelevant for Russia, but it is not true. <a href=\"https:\/\/bmpd.livejournal.com\/4393829.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The Russian Federation has a standing army of about 250,000 servicemen and 2,609 tanks, according to its Table of Organization and Equipment (TOE)<\/a>. Thus, in just five months <strong>Russia would have already lost 24% of its soldiers and 33.8% of its active tanks<\/strong>, and that taking into account the estimates of the aforementioned website, which are downwards. Those figures <strong>are a huge loss for Russia.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><big>Ukraine has managed to capture more Russian tanks than it has lost in this invasion<\/big><\/p>\n<p>In turn, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oryxspioenkop.com\/2022\/02\/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Oryxspioenkop.com<\/a>, <strong>Ukraine has lost 1,362 military vehicles, including 227 tanks.<\/strong> These are considerably lower casualties than the Russians. In fact, <strong>the number of tanks lost by Ukraine is less than the number of Russian tanks captured by the Ukrainians.<\/strong> It would seem that more than \"demilitarizing\" Ukraine, what Putin is achieving with this invasion is demilitarizing Russia.<\/p>\n<p>Even if Russia and Ukraine had the same casualties, it must be remembered that their resources and objectives are different. <strong>Russia is using resources to invade a country, with specific objectives<\/strong> (the ones we saw above) and the disadvantage of projecting its force far from its borders. <strong>Ukraine is defending her territory, which gives it an advantage.<\/strong> Its goal is its survival as a country, and it has mobilized hundreds of thousands of men to achieve it. <strong>Russia has not carried out such a general mobilization.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><big>HIMARS and MLRS can make Russia go on the defensive<\/big><\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, <strong>Ukraine is receiving more and more military aid from the West, while Russia is no longer able to cover its losses<\/strong>, due to international sanctions and their effects on the Russian military industry. Until now, <strong>the Ukrainian combat morale has been and remains higher than the Russian one<\/strong>, because the Ukrainians are defending their Homeland, while the Russian soldiers are invading a neighboring country, in an unjustifiable aggression based on lies spread by the Kremlin. To this must be added that <strong>the arrival of modern HIMARS and MLRS rocket launchers in Ukraine is creating serious problems for Russia<\/strong>, with constant attacks on Russian weapons depots in the occupied areas. It is quite possible that, if hostilities continue, these attacks will also be directed against Russian bases in Crimea.<\/p>\n<p><big>The prospects that this invasion has ahead<\/big><\/p>\n<p><strong>Putin thinks he has time on his side.<\/strong> He believes that with the arrival of autumn, the absence of Russian gas will cause serious problems for allied countries that will make them rethink sanctions against Russia. However,<strong> time is also playing against Russia: it loses more and more soldiers and more material<\/strong>, and the more time passes Ukraine manages to attract more and more military aid. Such aid, especially rocket launchers and tanks, may end up encouraging Ukraine to launch<strong> a full-scale counteroffensive<\/strong>, leaving Russia on the defensive in territory that is not even its own and for which its soldiers feel not worth dying for.<\/p>\n<p>If that happens, <strong>Russia would have a hard time holding the areas that Ukraine has occupied, it even risks losing Crimea and the areas of the Donbass occupied before the invasion.<\/strong> Russia could end up repeating the same humiliating scene that it already starred in with its withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989. The difference is that <strong>this time it will have lost many more soldiers and material in much less time.<\/strong> We'll see how long it takes for this trail of dead and wounded to cause an internal reaction against Putin.<\/p>\n<p><big>The geostrategic balance of the invasion: a setback for Russia<\/big><\/p>\n<p>To this must be added <strong>the political and geostrategic balance of this invasion: a stronger, cohesive and enlarged NATO<\/strong> (with the incorporation of Finland and Sweden), and determined to rearm and that will have even greater borders with Russia; <strong>a Ukraine that has strengthened its spirit and national identity<\/strong> with this invasion, and that in the future will keep them reminding their children of the heroic days of defending against Moscow; <strong>a Russia that is discredited and weakened, and which will be more dependent on China<\/strong> and other partners that are even more uncomfortable and just as unpresentable and unreliable (such as Iran and Venezuela); <strong>and Putin portrayed more than ever as a dictator and a terrorist<\/strong>, a plague in the international sphere, and an unbearable figure for his own people, who is enduring levels of censorship and repression already typical of the USSR.<\/p>\n<p>---<\/p>\n<p><small>Photo: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/russia-ukraine-war\/20-800-russian-troops-killed-in-war-ukrainian-military-claims\/2567266\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">aa.com.tr<\/a>. A destroyed Russian tank in Ukraine.<\/small><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today marks five months since the start of the current Russian invasion of Ukraine, an invasion that began with very ambitious goals.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[19536,10373],"tags":[10731,16153,15307],"class_list":["post-48100","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-we-said-yesterday","category-world","tag-russia","tag-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-of-2022","tag-ukraine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48100"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48100"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48100\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}