{"id":67222,"date":"2026-09-13T06:56:35","date_gmt":"2026-09-13T04:56:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/?p=67222"},"modified":"2026-09-15T03:42:19","modified_gmt":"2026-09-15T01:42:19","slug":"nc-report-and-the-enigma-of-a-guadiana-party-from-zero-to-four-seats-and-now-zero-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/2026\/09\/13\/nc-report-and-the-enigma-of-a-guadiana-party-from-zero-to-four-seats-and-now-zero-again\/","title":{"rendered":"NC Report and the enigma of a Guadiana party: from zero to four seats, and now zero again"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Hay algunas encuestas que m\u00e1s que en el mundo del an\u00e1lisis sociol\u00f3gico deber\u00edan ser encuadradas entre los fen\u00f3menos paranormales.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p><rel><a href=\"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/2026\/08\/12\/the-strange-case-of-a-political-party-that-goes-from-zero-to-four-seats-in-one-week\/\">The strange case of a political party that goes from zero to four seats in one week<\/a><\/rel><br \/>\n<rel><a href=\"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/2026\/08\/11\/right-wing-votes-to-ensure-the-survival-of-the-far-lefts-foreign-policy-agenda-in-spain\/\">Right-wing votes to ensure the survival of the far left's foreign policy agenda in Spain?<\/a><\/rel><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/2026\/08\/12\/the-strange-case-of-a-political-party-that-goes-from-zero-to-four-seats-in-one-week\/\/\">A month ago, I discussed here two polls by NC Report<\/a>, a polling firm based in Valencia. As I noted at the time, <a href=\"https:\/\/theobjective.com\/espana\/politica\/2026-08-11\/encuesta-iustitia-europa-elecciones-generales\/\">on August 11, The Objective reported that a poll predicted four seats for Iustitia Europa (IE)<\/a>\u2014a party registered on January 24, 2024\u2014in the upcoming general election. These four seats would be won in the Madrid constituency.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The poll had been commissioned by the party itself.<\/strong> That same day, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.larazon.es\/espana\/tribunales-congreso-iustitia-europa-lograria-cuatro-diputados_202608116a7af92271b42a0b5de94ab0.html\" target=\"_blank\">La Raz\u00f3n<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.esdiario.com\/nacional\/260811\/195192\/juzgados-congreso-iustitia-europa-asoma-cuatro-diputados-madrid.html\" target=\"_blank\">Esdiario<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.periodistadigital.com\/politica\/partidos-politicos\/20260811\/sorpresa-iustitia-europa-partido-luis-maria-pardo-obtendria-cuatro-diputados-acude-elecciones-noticia-689405237220\/\" target=\"_blank\">Periodista Digital<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.democrata.es\/encuestas\/iustitia-europa-irrumpir-encuestas-diputados-madrid\/\" target=\"_blank\">Democrata.es<\/a> [reported on it]. Only The Objective and Esdiario specified that the poll had been commissioned by the party itself. <strong>No other poll has awarded representation to IE<\/strong>\u2014a curious fact, given that the NC Report survey credited IE with 11.4% of the vote in the Community of Madrid, amounting to approximately 401,637 votes.<\/p>\n<p>The key detail is that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.larazon.es\/espana\/izquierda-hunde-psoe-sumar-podemos-llegan-35-votos_202608106a789283a046ad6ebca7bf9c.html\" target=\"_blank\">two days earlier, La Raz\u00f3n published another poll by NC Report, dated August 4,<\/a> <strong>which did not assign any parliamentary seats to that party<\/strong>. In fact, its name did not even appear in the analysis of potential vote transfers. <strong>That polling firm had released two surveys with vastly different results for IE within just a few days.<\/strong> Could it be because people change their minds so quickly?<\/p>\n<p>That certainly seems to be the case. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.larazon.es\/espana\/sanchez-lleva-psoe-suelo-electoral-vox-podrian-reformar-constitucion_202609076a9d3ff03bfe5d1eff4557b2.html\" target=\"_blank\">On Monday, La Raz\u00f3n published a new election poll that awards no seats to Iustitia Europa.<\/a> Among the parties trailing in terms of seat count would be Podemos (2 or 3), the BNG (2), CC (1), and UPN (1). <strong>IE is not even mentioned.<\/strong> I checked <a href=\"https:\/\/ncreport.es\/\" target=\"_blank\">the NC Report website<\/a> to see if they offered any explanation for this mystery. Nothing. Not a single reference to <strong>a party that seems to be like the Guadiana River\u2014appearing and disappearing<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Since we have ventured into the realm of mystery, <strong>perhaps Iker Jim\u00e9nez could address this matter on his program \"Cuarto Milenio,\"<\/strong> because it is strange for the same firm to assign zero seats to a party in one poll, attribute four seats to it a few days later, and then assign it zero seats again a few weeks after that. <strong>Iker frequently hosts the president of IE on his show \"Horizonte,\"<\/strong> where representatives from Vox (Spain's third-largest party) never appear. <strong>He might take the opportunity during one of his live link-ups with that gentleman to ask him about this enigma.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>---<\/p>\n<p><small>Image: Meta.ai.<\/small><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hay algunas encuestas que m\u00e1s que en el mundo del an\u00e1lisis sociol\u00f3gico deber\u00edan ser encuadradas entre los fen\u00f3menos paranormales.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[10398],"tags":[27856,13052,9526,27637,1485,14425,131,11462,15638],"class_list":["post-67222","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-spain","tag-democrata-es","tag-esdiario","tag-iker-jimenez","tag-iustitia-europa","tag-la-razon","tag-nc-report","tag-periodista-digital","tag-spain","tag-the-objective"],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-10-23 11:40:57","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67222","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67222"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67222\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67222"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67222"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.outono.net\/elentir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67222"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}