The successful Ukrainian offensive in Russia is surprising many people, starting with the Kremlin and its propagandists.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced yesterday that the Russian city of Sudzha in the Kursk region has been liberated by Ukrainian forces. The city is the administrative centre of the conquered area. He also noted that Ukraine is establishing a military administration on the Russian territory that it has managed to occupy since the offensive began on 6 August. So far, Ukrainian forces have managed to conquer 1,150 square kilometres of Russian territory and more than 80 settlements.
To give us an idea, the area conquered in 10 days exceeds the advances made by Russia in Ukraine in this entire year, with the big difference that these pyrrhic Russian advances have had a very high cost in casualties and military material for the invaders, something that does not seem to be happening among the Ukrainian troops taking part in this operation. In fact, on Wednesday, Ukrainian forces captured more than 100 Russian soldiers, in Ukraine's largest prisoner takeover in two-and-a-half years of war.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian offensive is no longer limited to the Kursk region: it has also entered Belgorod, as confirmed yesterday with images of this operation. To give us an idea of the importance of the Russian zone occupied by Ukraine in just 10 days it is almost twice the surface area of the city of Madrid. So far, 120,000 Russian residents have been evacuated as Moscow has been unable to stop the Ukrainian advance.
Likewise, today the Ukrainian Air Force has acknowledged its participation in this offensive: "Ukrainian pilots attacked enemy fortifications, equipment accumulations, as well as enemy logistics centers and supply routes with high-precision strikes". One of the targets attacked was the bridge over the Seim River in Kurshchyna, near Korenevo:
Footage of the Ukrainian Air Force dropping the Russian-held bridge over the Seym River at Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast.
At least one fighter-launched glide bomb hit the span, destroying it. pic.twitter.com/AwDGewyJ2R
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 16, 2024
The bridge was a key route for Russian reinforcements in a region not known for its good transport links. In addition, Russian reports say that a Russian army reinforcement column was destroyed last night in Kurshchyna. This data indicates that Ukraine is trying to consolidate the territory it has conquered.
This afternoon, the Institute for the Study of War noted that "Russia has redeployed some troops to Kursk from the Kharkiv region" in order to halt the Ukrainian offensive. "Russia is unlikely to withdraw entire combat units from eastern Ukraine, but it could redirect troops that were earmarked to reinforce the front lines in Donetsk," which would weaken Russia's chances of making advances there. According to Western military estimates published by AP, Ukraine is believed to be involved in the operation, so we are no longer talking about a small incursion but a full-blown offensive.
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