The ideas of Hungary's new government and its ambiguity on important issues

Yesterday Hungary held parliamentary elections that resulted in a defeat for Fidesz, Viktor Orbán's party.

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Fidesz is reeling from electoral rules designed to inflate its results

Según el sitio web de los resultados oficiales, el gran vencedor es el partido Tisza de Péter Magyar, que obtiene 138 de los 199 escaños del Parlamento de Hungría en su primera concurrencia a unas elecciones parlamentarias. Fidesz sufre un serio descalabro: pasa de 135 a 54 escaños, viéndose perjudicado por las propias reformas electorales implementadas por Orbán en sus 16 años de mandato con el fin de inflar los resultados de su partido. Además, el partido nacionalista y prorruso Mi Hazánk obtiene 6 escaños. La izquierda no logra representación.

According to the official results website, the big winner is Péter Magyar's Tisza party, which won 138 of the 199 seats in the Hungarian Parliament in its first appearance in parliamentary elections. The Fidesz-Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP) coalition suffers a serious setback, dropping from 135 to 54 seats. This decline is attributed to the electoral reforms implemented by Orbán during his 16 years in power, reforms designed to inflate his party's results. Furthermore, the nationalist party Mi Hazánk wins 6 seats, the same number it obtained in the 2022 elections.

The left loses all its representation in the Hungarian Parliament

It has been a paradox to see Pedro Sánchez celebrating these results, as have other Spanish socialist leaders, given that Demokratikus Koalíció (DK), the PSOE's partners in Hungary, lost all 15 of their seats and were left out of the Hungarian Parliament, after obtaining a paltry 1.16% of the vote. To put this in perspective, it is less than a third of the percentage of votes obtained by Alvise Pérez's party in the 2024 European elections in Spain. The Hungarian left remains mired in absolute marginality.

Tisza's ambiguous attitude on important matters

Regarding the winning party, it should be noted that Tisza is part of the European People's Party (EPP), although with a more conservative profile than its partners. In some respects, this party shares many characteristics with other EPP members. For example, Magyar has avoided taking a stance on issues such as abortion and euthanasia. Likewise, although Tisza has rejected Viktor Orbán's affinity towards Putin, Magyar's party has not expressed a friendly attitude. towards Ukraine.

Its speech on corruption, immigration and family

The winner of the Hungarian elections has based much of its success on a discourse against political corruption, which, as I explained here yesterday, has become a serious problem in the country. This reformist discourse has attracted many young Fidesz voters and has also served to appeal to many left-wing voters.

On February 7, the Hungarian website Portfolio.hu published Tisza's program, which includes tax cuts, doubling family and maternity benefits, maintaining the policy of rejecting mass and illegal immigration (in fact, Tisza, like Fidesz, has opposed the European Union's immigration quotas and the Brussels migration pact), and eliminating energy dependence on Russia (as I explained here last year, Orbán openly advocated for continuing to import Russian gas, to the point of buying more Russian gas than the country needed).

Magyar's ambiguity regarding Russia and China

Regarding foreign policy, Magyar has expressed himself as a supporter of the European Union and NATO. Likewise, the leader of Tisza has criticized Orbán's good relations with Russia and China, but at the same time does not seem willing to curtail Beijing's influence in Hungary, which has grown exponentially during Orbán's term. Regarding Ukraine and Russia, in November Magyar told the Financial Times:

"Regarding the situation in Ukraine, Péter Magyar stated that, if he came to power, his first step would be to recognize Moscow as the aggressor and, in line with EU allies, demand an immediate ceasefire. At the same time, his government would not change Hungary's position on military support for Ukraine, nor would it suddenly sever its relations with Russia. According to the TISZA chairman, Hungary must eliminate its dependence on Russian energy within the next decade, but at the same time, Russian imports may still remain an option."

It's time to move from words to action

This ambiguity on Magyar's part is explained by his eagerness to win votes across the political spectrum, including among Orbán's supporters (after all, Magyar's ex-wife was a minister in the current Hungarian government). The problem with this approach is that it sows uncertainty about important aspects of the new Hungarian government's policies. Changes are likely on issues related to political reform—his main electoral weapon—and improving relations with the European Union, since Magyar needs European funds to address Hungary's deteriorating economic situation, but on other matters, his intentions remain a mystery.

Until now, he has enjoyed the advantage of being in the opposition and of criticizing the established power without having to waste much time explaining what he would do, disguising his lack of concrete measures under a veneer of pragmatism. Now the time has come to demonstrate what he will do from within the government. We will have the opportunity to see if the many hopes will turn into disappointments.

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Photo: Facebook Péter Magyar.