The list of ceasefire agreements violated by Russia and pro-Russian forces in Ukraine

Yesterday, the Ukrainian president made an announcement following a meeting with representatives of the US government in Saudi Arabia.

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Volodymyr Zelensky made the following announcement in a message posted at 8:00 PM CET on his Twitter profile:

"During today’s talks, the U.S. side proposed taking an even bigger first step—a 30-day full interim ceasefire, not only stopping missile, drone, and bomb attacks, not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line.

Ukraine is ready to accept this proposal —we see it as a positive step and are ready to take it. Now, it is up to the United States to convince Russia to do the same. If Russia agrees, the ceasefire will take effect immediately."

So far, Zelensky has been skeptical about the viability of a ceasefire due to repeated violations of such agreements by Russia and pro-Russian forces since the war in Ukraine broke out in 2014, with Russia's annexation of Crimea and the armed uprising of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, supported militarily by Moscow. Zelensky put the number of such ceasefire violations at 25 by February 24, 2025.

If we stick to the facts, the actual figure would be much higher. Suffice it to note, for example, that between 18 and 20 February 2022, a few days before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the OSCE recorded as many as 3,231 ceasefire violations in a single day in areas largely controlled by pro-Russian forces (2,158 in Donetsk and 1,073 in Luhansk).

Although I don't like to turn to artificial intelligence for these things, I've decided to consult Grok, Twitter's AI, about the available data on these events, mainly because I know that some people would consider any information collected by me invalid, simply because of its authorship. The result of the consultation with Grok can be read here. I copy below the information prepared by this artificial intelligence through various sources:

1. Minsk Protocol (Minsk I) - September 5, 2014

• Description: Signed by Ukraine, Russia, the OSCE, and representatives of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics, it sought an immediate ceasefire and a security zone.
• Violation: Barely a week later, fighting resumed. A notable example is the continued shelling of Donetsk and Mariupol by pro-Russian forces. The UN reported 957 civilian deaths between September and November 2014, evidencing non-compliance.

2. Minsk Memorandum - September 19, 2014

• Description: Supplement to the Minsk Protocol, established a 30-km demilitarized zone and a bilateral cessation of hostilities.
• Violation: Russian-backed forces continued to attack Ukrainian positions, with shelling documented by the OSCE in October and November 2014.

3. Minsk Agreement II - February 12, 2015

• Description: Negotiated by Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany, it included an immediate ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons, and local elections in Donbas.
• Violation: Two days later, on February 14, 2015, pro-Russian forces captured Debaltseve after heavy fighting, in clear violation of the agreement. The OSCE reported more than 4,000 violations in 2015 attributed to Russian forces or their proxies.

4. Ilovaisk Truce - August 29, 2014

• Description: Putin promised a humanitarian corridor for Ukrainian troops besieged in Ilovaisk to withdraw.
• Violation: Russian and separatist forces opened fire on retreating Ukrainian convoys, killing at least 366 soldiers, known as the “Ilovaisk Cauldron.”

5. Christmas Truce - December 2014

• Description: Informal agreement for a cessation of hostilities during the holidays.
• Violation: The OSCE reported sporadic clashes and the use of artillery by pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk.

6. New Year's Truce - December 2015

• Description: Attempt at a year-end ceasefire agreed upon within the framework of Minsk II.
• Violation: Shelling continued in Donbas, with the OSCE recording hundreds of violations in the following weeks.

7. School Truce - August 25, 2016

• Description: Agreement to ensure a peaceful start to the school year.
• Violation: The OSCE documented mortar and artillery attacks by pro-Russian forces in the following days.

8. Easter Truce - March 30, 2018

• Description: Agreed upon within the Trilateral Contact Group for the Easter holidays.
• Violation: Ukraine reported attacks with heavy weapons by separatists in Donbas shortly afterward.

9. Summer Truce - July 1, 2018

• Description: Summer ceasefire to facilitate harvesting.
• Violation: The OSCE recorded more than 100 violations in the first week, including the use of weapons prohibited by Minsk II.

10. School Truce - August 29, 2018

• Description: New truce for the start of the school year.
• Violation: Clashes and shelling were reported in the Donetsk region, attributed to pro-Russian forces.

11. Christmas Truce - December 29, 2018

• Description: Agreement for the Christmas holidays.
• Violation: Ukraine reported mortar and artillery attacks by Russian-backed separatists.

12. Summer Truce - July 21, 2019

• Description: Announced by Zelensky as an "indefinite" ceasefire.
• Violation: Four Ukrainian soldiers were killed in a grenade launcher attack on August 6, 2019, attributed to pro-Russian forces.

13. Reinforced Truce - July 27, 2020

• Description: Additional measures agreed upon by the Trilateral Contact Group to reinforce the cessation of hostilities.
• Violation: The OSCE reported more than 1,000 violations in the following months, many attributed to Russian-backed forces.

14. School Truce - September 1, 2020

• Description: Attempted ceasefire for the start of the school year.
• Violation: Sporadic clashes continued in Donbas, with reports of Ukrainian casualties.

15. Christmas Truce - December 2020

• Description: Informal agreement for the holidays.
• Violation: Separatists reported light weapons and mortar attacks.

16. Easter Truce - May 8, 2021

• Description: Ceasefire for Orthodox Easter celebrations.
• Violation: Ukraine reported shelling and casualties on the contact line.

17-25. Other Minor Attempts (2014-2021)

• Description: Between 2014 and 2021, Ukraine and Russia agreed to at least 20 truces, according to Ukrainian sources and posts on X, many of them short-lived or tied to specific dates (such as harvests, holidays, or Normandy Format negotiations).
• Violation: While not all are individually documented, consistent reporting by the OSCE and Ukraine indicates that Russia or its proxies violated these truces with regular attacks. For example, Zelensky mentioned 25 significant violations in a speech in 2024, and the OSCE recorded thousands of incidents annually.

The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) ceased its activities on 31 March 2022, therefore, there is no consistent information on subsequent events. Furthermore, attempts to reach ceasefire agreements following Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine (which began on 24 February 2022) have so far been unsuccessful.

The Putin regime already has a considerable history of violating international agreements, as it has done with this invasion, which violates the Budapest Memorandum (by which Ukraine handed over its nuclear weapons to Russia in exchange for Moscow's commitment to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity) and the United Nations Charter (whose Article 2.4 prohibits "threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state"), so it would not have been expected to show more respect for ceasefire agreements.

It is worth asking whether this information will be taken into consideration by those who accuse Ukraine of not wanting peace, or whether, on the contrary, they will continue trying to blame the war on the invaded country, and not the invading country, simply because the Ukrainians have decided to defend themselves from this aggression and not surrender to the invaders.