Worrying signs on NATO's eastern flank due to maneuvers in Belarus

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine after amassing troops on that country's border.

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Russian and Belarusian military maneuvers very close to the Suwalki Gap

That troop buildup was carried out under the pretext of military exercises. It is worth noting this because this week, Russia and Belarus have staged military maneuvers on Belarusian territory, near the Suwalki Gap—the border between Poland and Lithuania—a line that also separates Belarus from the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. That corridor is one of NATO's most strategic points, as its occupation would allow Russia and Belarus to cut off the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia).

Regarding this mobilization, Euronews has reported that Russian and Belarusian troops have been deployed to the Hoża training ground, near the border with Lithuania, and the Brzeski and Różański ranges, located 15 and 60 kilometers from the Polish border, respectively. This morning, War Monitor noted that these maneuvers involve more than 9,000 soldiers and simulate an advance toward Kaliningrad—in other words, a potential occupation of the Suwalki Gap. NATO is monitoring Russian and Belarusian movements using AWACS aircraft.

On Wednesday, the Russian outlet The Moscow Times reported that these maneuvers involve mechanized and tank battalions and are scheduled to take place from September 15 to 18. According to the outlet, Pavel Muraveiko, Chief of the General Staff of Belarus, has stated that these are purely defensive exercises; however, statements from the Kremlin and its puppet regime in Belarus have already proven to lack any credibility. It is worth recalling that Russia also repeatedly denied it would invade Ukraine during the maneuvers it organized in late 2021—exercises that actually served to mobilize the military contingents that launched the invasion.

The Polish government warns of possible Russian attacks on allied countries

Poland is already fearing the worst regarding these maneuvers in Belarus. On Thursday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia is planning hybrid attacks using drones or rockets against European countries that support Ukraine, including Poland. The Polish leader cautioned: "There is a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles could enter the territory of one or more countries on the eastern flank and even cause destruction," Tusk warned, adding: "The official version will be that it was an accident and that there is no reason for NATO to consider a response."

The Polish outlet InfoSecurity24 has reported that Lithuania has already prepared an evacuation plan for the population in the event of a military threat or serious crisis, and that one of the three main evacuation routes for residents of Vilnius—the capital of the Baltic state—would lead toward Poland.

The United Kingdom reiterates NATO's collective defense obligation

On Friday, British Defence Minister Louise Sandher-Jones stated: "NATO has the capability and commitment to defend every inch of Alliance territory." Addressing Parliament, the minister added: "The UK remains staunchly committed to NATO’s collective defence obligation, offering almost all of our Armed Forces to NATO including high-readiness forces, which can be deployed as part of NATO’s collective defence plans if necessary."

High-level meeting in France on the international situation

This morning, French President Emmanuel Macron convened a meeting with the country's political leaders to outline "the deterioration of the international situation." Following the meeting, Macron warned that Russian hybrid attacks against Europe are intensifying and vowed that they would not go unanswered. After the meeting, the president of the Radical Party of the Left, Guillaume Lacroix, stated: "I have just emerged from nearly three hours of briefings and discussions with the President of the Republic and intelligence and security agencies. At 50 years old, I have rarely felt such a sense of vertigo. Vertigo in the face of the gravity of the situation in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the predatory madness dragging the world toward chaos."

The Kremlin continues trying to intimidate Europe with threats

It is worth noting that on Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov threatened Europe with a "very brief" war should it attack Russia. Regarding the Kremlin's peculiar notion of what constitutes an attack on Russia, Lavrov indicated that Moscow would view the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine as a declaration of war. This comes even as Russia itself employs Chinese and North Korean troops and weaponry, as well as Iranian drones, against Ukraine. Russia has spent years using such threats in an attempt to curb Western military aid to Ukraine.

As for Russia's prospects of winning a "very brief" war against Europe, one must recall that its powerful military has been bogged down in Ukraine for four and a half years—in what Moscow had intended to be a swift "special military operation." The Kremlin's threats are part of its policy of lies; in the face of them, NATO—and Europe in particular—must demonstrate strength. The alternative is to grovel before a terrorist state that has spent years committing all manner of crimes against the Ukrainian people.

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Main photo: AP. Russian and Belarusian armored vehicles during military exercises in Belarus on February 19, 2022, five days before the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.