Syria confirms the geostrategic suicide of Russia and Iran with their attacks on Ukraine and Israel

The most notable international news of December 8 is, without a doubt, the fall of the Bashar al-Assad dictatorship in Syria.

Lebanese Christian MP blames Iran and Hezbollah for devastation in Lebanon
Russia's international alliances test the throats of Putin fans

The atrocities of the Assad regime and its support for terrorists

Bashar al-Assad has ruled Syria since 2000, succeeding his father, Hafez al-Assad. Over the course of nearly two and a half decades, the Syrian dictator has committed atrocities such as using chemical weapons (specifically, sarin gas) against his own people. For decades, the Assad regime has supported the terrorist organization Hezbollah, which is largely responsible for the process of Islamization of Lebanon and the imposition of Islamic law in that country.

On the other hand, the deposed Syrian dictator had contradictory policies. The Assad regime was theoretically at war with ISIS and protected the Christian minority (among which the dictator has always had many sympathisers). Some Western Christians looked at Assad with sympathy for this, forgetting or overlooking that at the same time the Syrian dictator was buying fuel from ISIS, a trade that allowed that terrorist organization to commit genocide against Christians in Iraq, especially in the Nineveh Plain.

Similarly, Assad’s support for Hezbollah has led to an exodus of Christians from once-majority Christian Lebanon. Syria contributed to that process with its military occupation of Lebanon from 1975 to 2005, which completely ruined the Mediterranean country once known as the Switzerland of the Middle East.

On the other hand, Assad is a staunch ally of Russia and Iran, which is among the ten countries that persecute Christians the most in the world. The deposed Syrian dictator has used the support of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah not only to fight terrorists from ISIS and al-Qaeda (and its offshoot, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the jihadist group that has taken over Damascus with support from Turkey). Under the pretext of fighting these jihadist groups, during the bloody Syrian civil war the Assad regime, with the support of Russia, indiscriminately attacked the civilian population in several localities, provoking resentment that has contributed to the fall of that dictatorship.

Although the fall of Assad is good news, the power vacuum in Syria and the fact that a jihadist group has taken over part of the country are cause for alarm. In fact, to prevent terrorist groups from taking over the area, the Israeli Army has taken control of the Syrian part of Mount Hermon, next to the Golan Heights, an area with a strong presence of Druze communities, whose local militias, opposed both to Islamist groups and to the Assad regime, have been receiving support from Israel.

A hard blow for Moscow and Tehran

The fall of Assad is a hard blow for Russia and Iran, which have committed geostrategic suicide with their actions in recent years. First, Moscow sees its military bases in Syria in danger, specifically the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base. The Kremlin could try to negotiate its permanence with the new Syrian government, but Putin's alliance with Assad and the atrocities committed by the Russians in Syria (especially by the Wagner Group mercenaries) mean that its presence in the country is hanging by a thread. Tartus is Russia's only naval base outside Russia and its only port on the Mediterranean, so it would be a huge loss of influence for Moscow in the region.

As far as the Islamist regime in Tehran is concerned, Syria was part of the land corridor that allowed Iran to supply weapons to Hezbollah and Hamas, the two tentacles of its terrorist network in the Middle East. With the fall of Syria, it will be even more difficult for the Ayatollah regime to sustain these terrorist groups, which have been launching attacks against the civilian population of Israel for years, but especially since October 7, 2023, when Hamas perpetrated the greatest massacre suffered by the Jewish people since the Holocaust.

The effects of Russia and Iran's aggressions against Ukraine and Israel

It is impossible not to see echoes of other wars in Assad's downfall. For Russia, the invasion of Ukraine has become a military disaster that consumes ever more resources, with the Kremlin no longer having the military means to make up for its heavy losses. A side effect of this invasion and Western sanctions on Moscow has been the sharp fall of the ruble, which demonstrates the weakness of the Russian economy. In this scenario, Putin has been unable to come to the rescue of his ally Assad, just as he previously let down another ally, Armenia, in its recent conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.

As for the Ayatollah regime, Tehran has spent enormous resources on its direct attacks against Israel and also on its indirect attacks using its terrorist tentacles in Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen. Like Russia, Iran has been unable to prevent the fall of Assad, thereby losing one of its main allies in the Middle East. With Hamas and Hezbollah in serious trouble due to Israel’s military action, the increasingly isolated Tehran regime could now face serious internal problems that could threaten its downfall. Israel’s military responses to the Iranian attacks have shown that the Tehran regime is militarily much weaker than some imagined. We will now see whether the fall of Assad causes a domino effect in Tehran.

---

Photo: Efe.