The Putin factor, that great detail that some 'geniuses' didn't consider before exposing themselves

This Thursday, the strategies of some Western politicians regarding the invasion of Ukraine were spectacularly derailed.

This is not a peace process: it is favoring Russia and will not only have effects for Ukraine
Trump's shameful attitude towards Zelensky: rudeness to the victim and praise to the aggressor

Putin Wants to Turn Ukraine into Moscow's Puppet

This morning, Reuters revealed that Russia has presented demands to the US regarding Ukraine, which would include Kyiv's non-adherence to NATO, an agreement not to deploy foreign troops in Ukraine, and also international recognition of Russia's annexation of Crimea and four Ukrainian provinces, which would include territories in those provinces that have been recaptured by Ukrainian forces during these three years of war. In short: Putin wants to recover in a meeting what he lost on the battlefield and turn Ukraine into Moscow's puppet, a territory without national sovereignty to decide its future.

This afternoon, Putin sought to mask these demands by stating: We agree with the proposals to cease hostilities, and adding: But we proceed from the fact that this cessation should be such that it would lead to long-term peace and would eliminate the original causes of this crisis." The Kremlin has been outlining these "causes" for three years, from its point of view, which coincide with its justifications for this invasion: a possible entry of Ukraine into NATO (something that country was not even on the way to achieving when the invasion began), the "protection" of the Russian-speaking population (which Putin considers Russian without being so, and which includes many Ukrainians who defend their independence) and the so-called "denazification of Ukraine" (a cynical pretext by the Russian dictator to place a puppet government of Moscow in Kyiv).

Some media outlets are already pointing out that the Kremlin's proposals are maximalist, that is, designed to avoid being accepted by the US or Ukraine, since in practice it would mean giving Russia everything it asks for and ending Ukraine as a nation. This position from Moscow is not new: the Kremlin's propaganda networks have been claiming for years that Ukraine is part of Russia and that its independence should never have been recognized in 1991, something similar to what they also claim about Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

Trump Lets His Disappointment Show at Putin's Response

Putin's response has left the US president off-balance. Trump asserted that "Putin made a very promising statement but it wasn’t complete," and added: "I would like to see a ceasefire from Russia. We hope that Russia will do the right thing." A hope that seems to forget that Russia has been committing all kinds of atrocities in Ukraine for three years, as part of an illegal and unprovoked invasion. Trump let his disappointment show with these words: "We’re gonna see whether or not Russia’s there, and if not it’ll be a very disappointing moment for the world." It would be disappointing for Trump in almost every way, having placed his hopes in a criminal dictator like Putin.

A perverse strategy that has focused all its pressure on the invaded country

It should be noted that Russia's position has been strengthened in recent weeks by the Trump administration's pro-Russian shift, which has focused all its pressure on the invaded country and none on the invader, a strategy that many staunch supporters of the current US president have supported with an avalanche of messages on social media urging Ukraine to surrender and blaming the invaded country itself for this war for having resisted the invasion.

Some have tried to dress up this strategy as a pacifist or neutral position, but openly embracing many of the slogans that Russian propaganda has been broadcasting since February 24, 2022. Trump's most enthusiastic followers maintained that the US president was a brilliant negotiator and that his displays of affinity towards Moscow (blaming Ukraine for the invasion, calling Zelensky a "dictator" and voting alongside Russia and North Korea at the UN against a resolution supporting Ukraine) were lesser evils justified by the goal of achieving peace, even if it was an unjust peace that was profitable for the invader.

Putin exposes Trump and his die-hard supporters

However, Putin's reaction to Ukraine's offer of a ceasefire has exposed these Trump supporters. This Thursday, the talkativeness that many of them have been displaying about this war in recent weeks has turned into a significant silence. It turns out that the "brilliant negotiator" entrusted his entire bet to one factor, Putin, assuming that he wanted peace (as Trump claimed a month ago) and presenting Ukraine and those of us who continue to support it as bloodthirsty evildoers who want the war to continue and for there to be more deaths, omitting again and again that this war was started by Russia.

It's been curious to read and hear in recent weeks constant appeals to "realism" to demand that Ukraine give in to Russia, ignoring the fact that the Kremlin isn't going to settle for a few concessions, especially after the huge breath of fresh air it received with Trump's pro-Russian turn. The White House's "brilliant" strategy has only served to strengthen Putin, and now Trump and his die-hard followers have a big problem on their hands: how to get out of the mess they've gotten themselves into with their strategy?

Many Trump supporters, who claimed to support Ukraine, have been exposed as people willing to follow the US president even in his most immoral acts, such as blaming the aggression on the attacked nation and voting alongside the aggressors at the UN. In the end, their gamble backfired, and their supposed defense of some of their principles, such as patriotism and national sovereignty, was scuppered. This is the downside of changing their rhetoric to please a political leader like Trump, who is acting erratically and not like the shrewd negotiator some claimed.

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Photo: Yuri Kadobnov. A meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Helsinki in 2018.