“We'll see”: the reasons why we should listen to that Zen master sometime

"Charlie Wilson's War" (2007) is not one of my favorite movies, but it has a scene that made me think a lot.

The bold voice that many people believed to be until the moment of truth arrived
Principles versus fashions: the lesson offered by a man who folded his arms

That scene (which can be seen here) takes place at a time when American politicians are celebrating the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan in 1989. Tom Hanks plays the role of US Congressman Charles Wilson, and actor Philip Seymour Hoffman portrays a CIA agent who, in that scene, tempers their triumphalism with a parable about a Zen master:

There was a boy who, on his 14th birthday, received a horse, and everyone in the village said: how wonderful! And the Zen master said, "We'll see." Two years later, the boy falls off the horse and brokes his leg. And everyone in the village said: how terrible! And the Zen master said, "We'll see." Then a war breaks out, and all the young men had to go and fight, except the boy, who couldn't because his leg was broken. And everyone in the village said: how wonderful! And the Zen master said, "We'll see."

What does this parable mean? Well, it means that sometimes we rush to conclusions about an event, without considering the possible consequences or without having enough information to make a well-reasoned judgment. Therefore, the attitude of that Zen master is not ambiguous, but rather a call to prudence.

In the case depicted in the film, after investing millions in supporting the Afghan resistance against the Soviets, the United States made the mistake of abandoning Afghanistan's reconstruction, due to a shortsighted political calculation. As a result, the devastated country became a magnet for Islamic extremists, serving as a haven for the terrorist group Al-Qaeda, which, twelve years after the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan, perpetrated the attacks of September 11, 2001, against the United States.

I don't intend this article to be a reflexion on geopolitics or the War in Afghanistan. I'm publishing it because I too often see people taking sides in discussions simply based on what they read in the media, frequently without a comprehensive understanding of the facts. Obviously, there are many causes worth taking a stand for, but I think we often make the mistake of wanting to comment on everything that happens each day, often without knowing the circumstances and without considering the potential consequences. You might be surprised to read this from a guy who has a blog that covers a wide range of topics, but this might help you understand why there are subjects I don't discuss here: because I don't like to get caught out by speaking without knowing the facts.

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Image: still from the film "Charlie Wilson's War" (2007).