The alternatives Spain could choose if the sixth-generation stealth fighter FCAS fails

The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) program is faltering and could fail due to the rivalry between Germany and France.

A disconcerting statement by the JEMAD on the possible purchase of the F-35 by Spain
The few images and data available of the Boeing F-47 fighter, the replacement for the F-22 Raptor

Reuters reported yesterday that French industry wants sole leadership over FCAS, a program that involves collaboration between Germany, Spain and France. "French industry is blocking entry into the next phase in the development of the Franco-German fighter jet FCAS by demanding sole leadership of the project, the German defence ministry says," Reuters reported.

The problems between Germany and France over the FCAS have been going on for years, but the situation is currently reaching its limit and there is a serious possibility that Germany will end up abandoning the project. Spain is watching this dispute as a mere spectator, after having opted for this project to resolve, in the long term, some of the gaps in its military aviation, given the refusal of Pedro Sánchez's government to purchase the F-35.

What alternatives could Spain have if the FCAS fails? Truth be told, there aren't many options for finding another sixth-generation fighter. Currently, the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan, and Sweden are developing the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), whose fighter is known as BAE Systems Tempest, as the British company is leading the project, which began development in 2015.

Spain is already working with the United Kingdom and Italy on the Eurofighter consortium, but obviously if Spain joins a project already underway, it will have to accept that its participation will not be as significant as it was in the FCAS. Currently, production of this aircraft is expected to begin in 2030 and be in service by 2035 (the initial plans for the FCAS were for it to enter service in 2040).

Outside of Europe, The United States is developing the F-47, the future replacement for the F-22 Raptor, but like its predecessor, everything seems to indicate that it will not be an aircraft open to export, so Spain would have no options to buy it. Where there are possibilities is in the Boeing F/A-XX project, with which the US Navy hopes to replace the Super Hornet, but again we are talking about an American program without foreign participation.

On the other hand, there are programs such as the South Korean KAI KF-21 Boramae fighter (which is not actually a fifth-generation fighter) or the Turkish TAI TFX, which made its first flight on February 21, 2024. Both are twin-engine aircraft and are under development. The obvious question is: with a fifth-generation fighter already in operation, why invest in aircraft under development?

We thus arrive at the most obvious option, an option that has become taboo in the Spanish government for political reasons: the F-35. An option that the leftist government of Pedro Sánchez does not even consider simply because it is an American fighter, while at the same time agreeing to buy a Turkish training aircraft under development. Unlike the KF-21 Boramae and the TAI TFX, the F-35 is already in active service and has a STOVL version that would allow it to replace the Spanish Navy's Harrier II Plus, which will reach the end of their operational life in 2030 with no replacement in sight.

Spain would presumably have no participation in the manufacture of the F-35, since the various Spanish governments decided to stay out of that program, unlike what other European countries did. Obviously, it's more entertaining to be part of a project in which Spain watches as a spectator the fights between Germany and France, investing large sums of money without knowing if it will finally see any results, but maybe (and I say only maybe) we should start considering that vetoing the F-35 for ideological reasons has not been a good idea, although the current Spanish government does not like to rectify any of its mistakes.