Why is Putin fear-mongering about a Third World War and who might lose it?

The phrase "Third World War" has been repeated insistently for more than two years by Russia and its propagandists.

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Russia has been making threats against the West for more than two years

Since the start of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been constantly threatening the West not to help the Ukrainians, setting successive "red lines" beyond which Pandora's box would open. First it threatened Finland and Sweden not to join NATO, announcing "serious military consequences" if they did. Both countries joined the Atlantic Alliance and the Russian threats were not carried out. Later, the Kremlin directed these threats against the sending of Western tanks to Ukraine, in an attempt to cut off military aid to the defenders of that country.

Russia also threatened the West for delivering HIMARS missiles, which gave the Ukrainians a significant tactical advantage on the battlefield. The threats continued with the dispatch of F-16 fighters, another supposed red line that would put the world on the brink of war. Now, Russia is again threatening the West for authorizing Ukraine to defend itself with long-range missiles, to destroy the launch sites of Russian attacks against the Ukrainian civilian population.

The typical attitude of the bully who takes advantage of the fear of others

The philosophy of the new Russian threat is as clear as it is infamous: Russia can use weapons from Iran, communist China and North Korea to attack the Ukrainian civilian population, as it has done several times in recent days, but it does not want Ukraine to be able to counterattack to destroy the military objectives from which these attacks are launched. Russia’s attitude will be familiar to everyone: it is the typical attitude of the school bully who benefits from the fear of others, the fear of many people to stand up for the weakest in case that gets them into trouble.

As we can all attest, school bullies last as long as it takes others to stand up to them. When that fear subsides and the other students unite against the bully, their rule is over.

The partial success of Russian threats in some countries

Today, Russia is the bully we Europeans have been putting up with, a bully that has hitherto dared to go after smaller countries, such as Georgia (invaded in 2008), and those displaying clear weakness, such as Ukraine in 2014, when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea almost without resistance. Every time Russia and its propagandists threaten a Third World War, what they seek is for fear to override our sense of justice, for our desire to help a country attacked by a military power to be replaced by the fear of being involved in a war ourselves.

It must be admitted that Russia's threats have been partially successful due to a pusillanimous political class in several NATO member countries, such as Germany and France. The governments of Poland, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic and the Baltic republics showed courage from the first day of the invasion and made military aid flow to Ukraine. Thanks to their help, Ukraine has been able to resist. Nevertheless, fear of Putin's threats succeeded in delaying some military aid to Ukraine, costing many Ukrainian lives.

The weakness displayed by Joe Biden and what could happen with Trump

The clearest example is that of the United States, led by Joe Biden, who has made weakness the hallmark of his mandate, with fatal consequences for the world, such as the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the invasion of Ukraine, the escalation of threats from communist China against free China (Taiwan) or the growing bullying of North Korea. Trump should put an end to this period of weakness, but his promises to immediately end the war in Ukraine (without explaining how) and the isolationist tendency of the Republican Party (the same tendency from which Nazi Germany benefited until 1941) are a logical cause for concern in Europe.

Russia would be the one most likely to lose that war

The most curious thing about this issue is that the same Russia that threatens a Third World War is the one that should most fear such a war breaking out. Less than three years in, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has exposed Russia's military weaknesses. Russia has been unable to achieve its objectives in Ukraine and is suffering colossal losses, losses that it has had to make up for by drawing on and exhausting its Soviet-era reserves.

Russia knows that a nuclear war against the West would be suicidal, because of the mutually assured destruction that such weapons would entail. Resorting to nuclear weapons would be a last desperate measure that Russia might resort to if the country were on the brink of extinction. In the realm of conventional warfare, if Russia has been unable to defeat a smaller country like Ukraine, what could it do against an alliance like NATO?

Putin tries to frighten and disunite the West

Putin's only hope of success in a war against NATO is for the alliance to break up. Putin knows that the West bases its strength on its unity, which is why his propagandists attack NATO so much: because it is the protective shield that Western countries have created to defend each other. The pro-Russian propagandists want a divided, weak and defenseless West, a West that trembles before Putin's threats and is willing to give in to this tyrant in everything he asks so as not to start a conflict with Russia. Putin and his admirers want us to be cowards and gripped by fear, which is why much of their discourse is aimed at promoting cowardice in the West.

If there were a new world war, Russia knows that it has no chance of defeating a united West, just as Stalin recognized that the USSR would have been defeated without American and British aid during World War II. I don't know if that Third World War will end up breaking out (if it hasn't already: remember that World War II began with the invasion of Poland), but what is clear is that we will lose it if fear of Putin's threats ends up nullifying our ability to stand up to and nullify that bully.

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Photo: Reuters. A military parade of various NATO member countries in Brussels on April 2, 2024.