The significant increase in Russian casualties in Ukraine and what can be deduced from it

@DefAviation ES 2·13·2023 · 7:04 0

There are only a few days left until one year has passed since the start of the current Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022.

Russia ended 2022 reaching the symbolic number of 1,600 tanks lost in Ukraine
Russia's tank losses in Ukraine: some data from 2021 to verify how serious they are

Russian losses were not that high since the start of the invasion

When it comes to analyzing the development of that war, one of the sources that have been publishing very interesting and accurate analyzes is British intelligence. Yesterday it released its daily information with its usual analysis of the situation but also adding , the following chart showing average daily Russian casualties in Ukraine since the start of the invasion:

British Intelligence notes the following about this graph: "Over the past two weeks, Russia has likely suffered its highest rate of casualties since the first week of the invasion of Ukraine." It also notes the following: "The Ukrainian General Staff release daily statistics on Russian casualties. Although Defence Intelligence cannot verify Ukraine’s methodology, the trends the data illustrate are likely accurate." Russia has barely published data on its casualties in Ukraine, so the sources for this information are limited to Ukraine itself and the intelligence services of other countries.

Some data that can be explained by several reasons

Regarding the data on recent Russian casualties, British intelligence points out: "The mean average for the last seven days was 824 casualties per day, over four times the rate reported over June-July 2022." And what explanation has this sudden increase in casualties? British intelligence notes the following: "The uptick in Russian casualties is likely due to a range of factors including lack of trained personnel, coordination, and resources across the front – this is exemplified in Vuhledar and Bakhmut", two towns in Ukraine where the Russian offensives are still failing to achieve their objectives.

Russia has already lost 127 tanks in these first 44 days of the year

Regarding material losses, let's remember that Russia ended 2022 reaching the figure of 1,600 tanks lost in Ukraine. Data collected by the independent website Oryxspioenkop .com, which has been documenting the losses of both sides with images since the start of the invasion, points out that to date Russia has already lost 1,727 tanks; In other words, in the 44 days since 2023, Russia has lost 127 more tanks.

Russia could be preparing an offensive like the one from a year ago

These data seem to indicate that Russia could be starting another major offensive like the one from a year ago. February 2022 was the only month of this war in which Russia suffered a daily average of casualties greater than the current one. And once again, Russia could find itself with the same lack of motivation and preparation that already caused the failure of that initial offensive, with which Putin intended to take kyiv, decapitate the Ukrainian government and seize control of the whole country. Some objectives that later, in the face of Russian military failures, it has had to drastically reduce. Those who are dying now are the civilians mobilized by Putin last summer, a mobilization in which the Russian president placed his confidence to redirect the course of this war in his favor.

To this day, and despite the illusions that Putin had, Russia is still very far from achieving its objectives and the front is quite stagnant. Russia has consumed a large part of its military resources without having He has achieved his goals and it does not seem that he has much chance of achieving them. However, you should not lower your guard. Ukraine warned on Saturday that Russia is amassing troops in Bakhmut and Lyman with the intention of launching a new offensive. So the defenders of Ukraine need military aid to keep flowing in order to deal with the invaders.

United States and Poland raise the alarm

On Saturday, the US Department of Defense noted that while Russia has lost tens of thousands of soldiers and probably half of its main battle tanks in Ukraine, its forces are adapting and there are large reserves of personnel. Once again placing his country at the forefront of foreign support for Ukraine, the President of Poland, Andrzej Duda, declared yesterday: "If Ukraine doesn't get a lot of weapons right away, then Russia may win the war and we don't know where it will stop with its troops."

We must learn from history and from the mistakes made

The Ukrainian people have been fighting bravely and heroically for their independence for a year now. Reason is still on Ukraine's side as it was on the first day of this invasion, and that is what Western countries must value above all other considerations. If the Ukraine falls, Russian imperialism would achieve a victory that would serve as an incentive to continue invading other countries. The West cannot again make the mistake it made by not stopping Hitler in time when he took over Austria and Czechoslovakia in 1938, allowing Nazi Germany to further strengthen itself and give rise, a year later, to a world war. We must learn from history and above all from the mistakes of the past, so as not to repeat them.

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Photo: Chris McGrath. A destroyed Russian T-72 tank in Kupiansk, Ukraine, on December 15, 2022.