Moscow assured yesterday that two unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) hit the Kremlin in an alleged attempt to assassinate Putin.
Of course, I am convinced that nothing would make millions of Ukrainians happier than the death of the Russian dictator who has unleashed a criminal invasion against Ukraine, and who this week has continued to bomb several Ukrainian towns, killing innocent civilians. But we must know how to distinguish between wishes and reality, and above all between reality and Russian propaganda, which has been systematically resorting to lies since before the start of the invasion, when over and over again Russia denied that it was going to take place, while it was already planning it.
Ukraine has denied that it is behind the alleged attack.
The Kremlin has made lies its main tool of war. In fact, it even resorts to the falsehood of calling its invasion of Ukraine a "special military operation", even imprisoning those Russians it denounces that in reality is a war and they oppose it. This Thursday, Ukraine denied being behind that assumption attack on the Kremlin. In turn, and indifferent to the lack of evidence, today Russia has accused the United States of orchestrating the alleged attack.
Former Russian lawmaker attributes attack to Russian insurgents
While Russia has yet to show the remains of the UAVs used in the alleged attack, the possibility cannot be ruled out that it was the work of the Russian regime itself or of Russian insurgents opposed to Putin (they have been operating for months now). in various parts of Russia, with all kinds of acts of sabotage). This latest version is the one pointed out by former Russian deputy Ilya Ponomarev.
The analysis of Admiral (R) Juan Rodríguez Garat
This Thursday, Admiral (retired) Juan Rodríguez Garat of the Spanish Navy signs an article in the newspaper El Debate, in which, after reviewing the successive lies of the Kremlin, he states:
"What does Russia say? That Ukraine launched two drones over the Kremlin and that – I quote the TASS agency verbatim – “as a result of the timely reactions of the military and special services using electronic warfare systems, the drones were neutralized”. But that's not what we saw on TV. We saw a drone that exploded in the air without causing significant damage. This is not caused by an electronic warfare system, designed to interrupt the control of the drone and that, having lost the guide that leads it to its target, impacts any non-vital site."
Admiral Rodríguez Garat rules out that the drone came from Ukraine, since "not even Russia wants to maintain that Ukrainian drones can cross all of Russian airspace without being detected", a attack that would have required "several hours of GPS-guided flight without possible correction. This is not how the military world does these things."
Rodríguez Garat believes that "the key to the false flag attack is provided by the immediate declaration of a senior DUMA official: "An attack against the president is an attack against all Russians." With the Russian army bogged down in Bakhmut, recruitment campaigns for volunteers to fight in Ukraine have failed, the Kremlin needs to prove to the citizens that the war of conquest in Ukraine is existential for Russia."
ISW analysis pointing to a false flag attack
Yesterday, The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) referred to the Kremlin incident stating:
"Russian authorities have recently taken steps to increase Russian domestic air defense capabilities, including within Moscow itself, and it is therefore extremely unlikely that two drones could have penetrated multiple layers of air defense and detonated or been shot down just over the heart of the Kremlin in a way that provided spectacular imagery caught nicely on camera. Geolocated imagery from January 2023 shows that Russian authorities have been placing Pantsir air defense systems near Moscow to create air defense circles around the city. A strike that avoided detection and destruction by such air defense assets and succeeded in hitting as high-profile of a target as the Kremlin Senate Palace would be a significant embarrassment for Russia."
In its analysis, the ISW states: "the purpose of this false-flag attack was to justify increased mobilization measures rather than any sort of escalation." The ISW analysis adds: "The Kremlin may be planning to conduct other false flag operations and increase disinformation ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in order to increase domestic support for the war. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on May 2 that Russian forces in Bryansk and Kursk oblasts received Ukrainian uniforms in order to conduct a false flag operation in border areas."
The ISW further notes: "The Kremlin has previously attempted to portray Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia’s territorial integrity and to warn of supposed Ukrainian provocations to be conducted in Moldova."
The precedents of false flag attacks made by Russia
It would not be the first time that Russia has carried out a false flag attack. As National Review recalled in February of last year, in 1999 the FSB, the Russian successor to the Soviet KGB, organized false flag attacks in Moscow, Buinaksk and Volgodonsk, in order to have a pretext to start the Second Chechen War. This was not an isolated event on the part of the Putin regime. In 2008 and 2014, Russia carried out new attacks of false flag to have an excuse with which to invade Georgia and Crimea, respectively.
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