Would it be possible for a coup d'état to occur in Spain due to corruption?

The corruption scandals of Pedro Sánchez's socialist government are creating a dangerous situation of instability in Spain.

Pedro Sánchez said he would imitate a socialist leader who led a coup d'état
The Armada's list: the 23F coup document that implicated four PSOE officials

The 'years of lead' and the PSOE's motion of censure against Adolfo Suárez

This is not the first time that this country has gone through a situation like this. In 1980, Spain already experienced a critical situation, with economic problems derived from the 1979 oil crisis, with the terrorist group ETA committing its largest wave of murders (the so-called "years of lead", between 1978 and 1980, to destabilize the newly reborn Spanish democracy) and with the left putting enormous pressure on the centrist government of Adolfo Suárez.

This pressure was reflected in the first motion of censure in our democracy, presented by the socialists of the PSOE in May 1980 and supported by the communists. In 2020, 40 years later, the PSOE acknowledged that the purpose of the motion was to give "visibility to Felipe González's image as a presidential candidate before the citizens", despite knowing they would lose the vote (it was rejected with 166 votes against, 152 in favor, 21 abstentions, and 11 absences), and added: "after the failed vote, the socialists had lost a battle, but their leader had won a war".

The 23F coup d'état and the Armada list

A few months after the failure of the motion of censure, on February 23, 1981, there was a coup d'état led by some military personnel and Civil Guards. The most famous part of the coup was the entry of several Civil Guards, led by Antonio Tejero, into the Congress of Deputies during a plenary session, so the coup was televised live, achieving enormous impact on national and international public opinion. That coup failed after a few hours due to a lack of support among the military and without any deaths or even bloodshed.

It must be said that the whole truth about that coup is still not known today: Pedro Sánchez's government keeps documents about that event classified as secret, which is surprising considering that 44 years have already passed. In 2022, I already spoke here about one of the dark points of that event: the list of Alfonso Armada, one of the coup plotters, for a concentration government which would include four PSOE leaders and a total of six left-wing leaders, but only four centrists and two right-wing leaders.

Pujol stated that the Socialists wanted to replace Suárez with a military man

In that article I referred to what former Catalan president Jordi Pujol wrote in his memoirs about that time: "The PSOE had a real obsession with bringing down Suárez. Proof of this is the visit that the prominent socialist leader Enrique Múgica had made to my house in Premià de Dalt at the end of the summer of 1980 to ask me how we would see the resignation of the president of the Government and his replacement by a democratic-minded military man." Múgica denied having made such a proposal, but if it were true, it would have been proposed a few months after the failure of the PSOE's motion of censure and a few months before the 23F coup. After the coup, the PSOE won the 1982 general elections by an absolute majority.

Separatists raise the price of their support for Sánchez

I couldn't help but recall those events in light of the current situation. Today we have a socialist president cornered by corruption scandals and determined to cling to power at any price. Pedro Sánchez has already shown he's capable of anything to stay in power for another day: examples include his pardons, first, and then the amnesty, granted to his separatist allies in exchange for their support. The problem for Sánchez is that his extreme political weakness due to corruption is driving the price of the separatists' support ever higher.

Sánchez could allow a separatist referendum to generate tension.

In March 2024 the separatists of Junts and ERC had already asked Sánchez for a referendum to break up Spain, but so far they have not managed to get the socialist leader to agree to this, since it would be a direct blow to constitutional legality that would generate unprecedented political and social tensions in Spain. This week, El Debate noted that Junts has once again made that demand to Sánchez, stating that the PSOE leader already "offers them everything" in exchange for their support.

Obviously, a measure like that would provoke a colossal political crisis in Spain. If Sánchez were to grant that referendum to his separatist allies, something that is not out of the question, he would be putting the King and the Armed Forces between a rock and a hard place. Both Sánchez and his mentor, the even more Machiavellian José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, have proven to be true experts in generating tension to take political advantage of it. Right now, Sánchez is banking on all his possibilities in mobilizing left-wing voters using the "extreme right" as an electoral incentive.

Following in the footsteps of Venezuela's socialist dictatorship

In a Spain like today's, a military coup like the one on February 23, 1981 is unlikely. What is very likely is that a scenario like the self-coup of 2002 in Venezuela, which Hugo Chávez used to increase his power and openly turn his country into a dictatorship. We must not forget that Sánchez's attack on judicial independence in 2022 was a copy of what Chávez did in Venezuela, and that this socialist dictatorship has Zapatero as one of its greatest defenders in Europe.

The socialist Sánchez proposed emulating in 2021 and the coup he carried out in 1934

On the other hand, we must also remember that in May 2021 Sánchez stated that he wanted to act like Francisco Largo Caballero, that when he was president of the PSOE threatened a civil war if the right-wing won the 1933 elections and finally led an armed rebellion in October 1934 when the right-wingers of The CEDA joined Lerroux's government. A bloody coup d'état (the coup plotters murdered 33 priests and religious figures and 300 soldiers and members of the security forces) that the PSOE has never condemned.

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Photo: Congreso de los Diputados.