The problem posed by the cancellation of the FCAS fighter jet for the Spanish Navy

For some time now, reports and rumors about the possible cancellation of the FCAS have been occurring with increasing intensity.

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Finally, the cancellation of this sixth-generation fighter jet program has been confirmed today by decision of the governments of Germany and France, the main countries involved in the project. Spain, the third partner, has been left as a mere spectator and now has to fend for itself in the face of the considerable problem that the end of this program represents for our Armed Forces.

This news poses a serious problem for Spain. The FCAS was intended to replace the Spanish Air Force's Eurofighters when they reached the end of their operational life (something still expected around 2060; some of them, surely, we won't see by then). The Spanish Air Force still has quite some time before that day arrives, so it can wait patiently for new plans to emerge.

Furthermore, the Spanish Armed Forces also expected the FCAS to fill the gap that will be left vacant by the retirement of the Navy's Harrier IIs in 2032. In July of last year, Admiral General Teodoro Esteban López Calderón, Chief of the Defence Staff (JEMAD), stated regarding the replacement of the Harrier II fighters of the 9th Squadron: "We will have to make do with the fourth generation we have and wait for the arrival of the FCAS someday. The problem is, of course, that we have to wait many years for the FCAS."

Thus, the Spanish Navy was counting on a future naval FCAS to replace the Harrier II, even if it was years after the end of its operational life (the FCAS wasn't expected until at least 2040). Now the future of Spain's carrier-based fixed-wing aircraft is uncertain, and not because there isn't an alternative—there is. We all know it, although in certain political circles it's treated as taboo.

With the FCAS program cancelled, Europe has another sixth-generation fighter alternative under development. The UK, Italy, Japan, and Sweden are currently developing the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), known as the BAE Systems Tempest, as the British company is leading the project. Development began in 2015 and is currently accumulating considerable cost overruns. The problem for Spain is that there are currently no plans to build a naval Tempest. The reason is obvious: both the United Kingdom and Italy already operate a fifth-generation fighter jet with STOVL (short takeoff and vertical landing) capability, the one that is as unmentionable to the Spanish government as Voldemort is in the "Harry Potter" books.

The logical and sensible solution now would be to acquire the F-35B (that's the name of the unmentionable fighter jet), since it is an aircraft already in service and one that Spain could receive in a shorter timeframe than was planned for the naval FCAS. However, the hostility of Pedro Sánchez's government towards the United States is blocking that possibility for strictly political reasons.

In light of this, and knowing the current Spanish government's affinity for Turkey, Spain could end up buying the naval version of the Turkish Hürjet, a conventional aircraft without stealth capabilities and therefore lacking the capabilities of the F-35B, which would require a CATOBAR-type aircraft carrier (i.e., with catapults for launching aircraft and arresting hooks for landings), a possibility we already discussed here.