The alleged letter from a member of the Russian FSB about the problems of the invasion of Ukraine

@ElentirENG ES 3·07·2022 · 12:26 0

As I have already told you before, due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, some information must be taken with tweezers, as it cannot be verified.

Russia had as many dead in Ukraine in a single week as in Afghanistan in 4 months
Ukraine captures and publishes secret Russian documents with its plans for the invasion

This is the case of a letter from a member of the FSB, the main Russian intelligence service, leaked on Facebook this Friday, March 4 at 9:37 CET by Vladimir Osechkin (an automated copy is now available on archive.ph). Osechkin is a Russian citizen and human rights activist based in France. He is the founder of Gulagu.net, an NGO that brings together relatives of prisoners and independent human rights activists. Last year he leaked images of the torture practiced by the Putin regime in his prisons, which is why the Kremlin has blacklisted him and has even literally put a price on his head.

On the authenticity of that letter, Osechkin has pointed out in the comments of that entry that that member of the FSB who has already sent them information previously, but warns: "a certain bias and professional deformation is felt." I have decided to publish a translation of the letter (the original is in Russian) because it says many things that I find interesting and that it would be very strange if the Kremlin had leaked it, since it leaves the Putin regime quite bad. However, I encourage you to be critical of the reading and to bear in mind that, even if it is an authentic letter, its author may be conditioned by various factors (starting with the anguish and stress perceived in the text), which It leads him to be something tremendous.

Let's go, without further ado, with the letter (I have put certain parts in bold for their relevance and to make the reading less heavy, and I make some annotations in brackets to provide information that makes the reading more understandable):

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"I'll be honest right away: I've barely slept all these days, almost all the time at work, my head is a little floating, like in a fog. And due to overwork, sometimes I already catch states, as if all this were not real.

To be honest, Pandora's box is open: summer will begin a real global horror: global famine is inevitable (Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain in the world, this year's harvest will be smaller, and logistical problems will bring catastrophe to a peak).

I can't tell you what led the higher-ups to decide on the operation, but now they are methodically bringing down all the dogs (the Service). We get scolded for parsing - this is very much on my profile, so I'll explain what's wrong.

Recently, we have been under increasing pressure to customize reports based on management requirements; I touched on this topic once. All these political consultants, politicians and their entourage, influence teams, all of this created chaos. Strong.

The most important thing is that no one knew that there would be such a war, they hid it from everyone. And here is an example for you: You are (conditionally) asked to calculate the possibility of human rights protection under different conditions, including the meteor attack on prisons. You specify about meteorites, they tell you: this is so, reassurance for calculations, none of this will happen. You understand that the report will be just for show, but you need to write in a victorious style so that there are no questions, they say, why do you have so many problems, did you really work poorly? In general, a report is being written that when a meteor falls, we have everything to eliminate the consequences, we are great, everything is fine. And you focus on tasks that are real; anyway, we don't have enough strength. And then all of a sudden they really throw meteorites and hope that everything agrees with their analysis, which was written from the bulldozer.

That's why we totally screwed up: I don't even want to pick another word. There is no protection against sanctions for the same reason: well, it is quite possible that Nabiullina [president of the Central Bank of Russia], is sewn through negligence (rather, the switchmen of her team), but what do they have the guilt? No one knew that there would be such a war, so no one prepared for such sanctions. This is the reverse of the secret: since no one was informed, who could calculate what no one told?

Kadyrov [Ramzan Kadyrov, the president of Chechnya] is going crazy. And the conflict almost started with us - perhaps even the Ukrainians threw out misinformation that it was we who handed over the routes of Kadyrov's special forces in the first days of the operation. They were covered there on the march in a terrible way, they hadn't started fighting yet, but they were just torn to pieces in places. And that's it: it was the FSB that leaked the routes to the Ukrainians. I don't have that information, I'll leave 1-2% for reliability (it can't be completely ruled out either).

The blitzkrieg failed. It is simply impossible to complete the task now: if Zelensky and the authorities were captured in the first 1-3 days, seized all the key buildings in Kiev, gave them the order to surrender; yes, the resistance would decrease until the end. Minimum values. In theory. But what next? Even with this ideal variant, there was an intractable problem: with whom to negotiate? If we take down Zelensky, well, who should we sign agreements with? If with Zelensky, after we destroy it, these papers are worth nothing. ОПЗЖ [Opposition Platform party acronym, Russophile formation leading the opposition in Ukraine] refused to cooperate: Medvedchuk [Viktor Medvedchuk, leader of the Opposition Platform] is a coward, he fled. There is a second leader there, Boyko [Yuriy Boyko, a Ukrainian politician I consider pro-Russian], but he refuses to work with us, even his own people will not understand. They wanted to return Tsarev [Oleg Tsarev, leader of the pro-Russian Party of Regions, who fled to Russia in 2014], so even our pro-Russians turned against him. Return Yanukovych [Viktor Yanukovych, leader of the Party of Regions, who fled to Russia in 2014]? But how? If we say that it is impossible to occupy, then any of our authorities will be killed there in 10 minutes, when we leave. Occupy? Where are we going to get so many people? Commanders, military police, counterintelligence, security, even with minimal resistance from the locals, we need 500 thousand or more people. Not counting the supply system. And there is a rule that by covering poor management quality with quantity, you just screw it up. And this, I repeat, would be with the ideal option, which does not exist.

Now what? We cannot announce the mobilization [a mass recruitment among Russian citizens] for two reasons:
1) Large-scale mobilization will undermine the situation inside the country: political, economic, social.
2) Our logistics are already overloaded today. We will lead a contingent many times larger, and what will we get? Ukraine is a strong country in terms of territory. And now the level of hate towards us is through the roof. Our roads simply won't be able to handle such supply caravans: everything will grind to a halt. And we won't be able to get it out, because it's chaos.

And these two reasons fall at the same time, although only one is enough to break everything.

Losses: I don't know how many there are. Nobody knows. During the first two days there was still control, now nobody knows what is happening there. You can lose large units in communication. They can be found or they can be dissolved due to an attack. And there, even the commanders may not know how many of them are running somewhere nearby, how many died, how many are in captivity. The death toll is definitely in the thousands. Maybe 10 thousand, maybe 5, or maybe just 2. Even at headquarters they don't know for sure. But it should be closer to 10. And that's not counting the LDNR [Dombás separatists] corps, they have their own accounts.

Now, even if Zelensky is killed, taken prisoner, nothing will change. It is like Chechnya in terms of hatred towards us. And now even those who were loyal to us are opposed. Because it was planned from above, because we were told that there would be no such option, unless we were attacked. Because they explained that it was necessary to create the most credible threat in order to peacefully agree on the right conditions. Because initially we were preparing protests inside Ukraine against Zelensky. Excluding our direct entry. Intrusions, to put it simply.

Civilian losses will increase exponentially, and resistance to us will also increase. They already tried to enter the cities with infantry: out of twenty landing parties, only one was conditionally successful. Remember the assault on Mosul - after all, this is the rule, so it was in all countries, nothing new.

Keep under siege? Based on the experience of military conflicts in Europe itself in recent decades (Serbia is the largest testing ground here), cities can be besieged for years and even function. Humanitarian convoys from Europe are a matter of time.

We have a conditional June deadline. Conditional – because in June we have no economy left, there is nothing left. In general, next week there will be a turning point on one side, simply because the situation cannot be in such a surge. There is no analysis: it is impossible to calculate the chaos, here nobody can say anything for sure. Act intuitively and even on emotions, but this is not poker for you. Rates will go up, in the hope that suddenly some option will skyrocket. The problem is that we too can miscalculate and lose everything in one move.

In general, the country has no way out. It's just that there is no option for a possible victory, and defeat is everything, he sailed at all. They 100% repeated the beginning of the last century, when they decided to kick weak Japan and win a quick victory, then it turned out that the army was in trouble. Then they started the war to the bitter end, then they began to bring the Bolsheviks to “re-educate” them in the army; after all, they were outcasts, of no interest to anyone in the masses. And then the Bolsheviks, who weren't really known to anyone, picked up slogans against the war and it started like this...

From the professionals [he means the soldiers]: We did everything possible so that not even a hint of the massive shipment of "penalty boxes" to the front line got through. Send the "socially unreliable" convicts and political prisoners there (so they don't mess with the water inside the country) - the army's morale will simply turn negative. And the enemy is motivated, terribly motivated. He knows how to fight, there are enough mid-level commanders there. There are weapons. They have support. We will simply set a precedent for human loss in the world. And that is.

What we fear most: At the top, they act on the rule of overlapping the old problem with a new problem. Largely for this reason, the 2014 Donbas [referring to the armed insurrection of separatists in eastern Ukraine] began: it was necessary to divert the attention of Westerners from the issue of the Russian spring in Crimea, so it seems that the Donbas crisis should have attracted all the attention and become the subject of negotiation. But there were even bigger problems. Then they decided to put pressure on Erdogan [President of Turkey] with 4 gas pipelines from South Stream and entered Syria; this is after Suleimani [Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards chief] knowingly provided us with false information to solve his own problems. As a result, it was not possible to close the problem with the Crimea, there are also problems with the Donbas, the South Stream has been reduced to 2 pipes, and Syria has been hung with another headache (if we get out, they will demolish Assad, which will make us look like idiots, but it is also difficult and useless to sit).

I don't know who came up with the "Ukrainian Blitzkrieg". If we were given actual introductory information, we would at least indicate that the original plan is controversial, that we need to verify a lot. A lot of things. Now we're up to our necks in shit somewhere. And it is not clear what to do. "Denazification" and "demilitarization" are not analytical categories, because they do not have clearly defined parameters by which the level of task completion or non-compliance can be determined.

Now it remains to be seen that some fucking adviser will convince the leadership to start a conflict with Europe demanding to lower some sanctions. Or reduce, or war. What happens if they refuse? Now, I do not rule out that then we will be involved in a true international conflict, like Hitler in 1939. And then our Z [the letter painted on many Russian military vehicles] will be compared to a swastika.

Is there a possibility of a local nuclear attack? Yes. Not for military purposes (it won't give anything, it's a revolutionary defense weapon), but for the purpose of intimidating others. At the same time, the ground is being prepared to turn everything in Ukraine: Naryshkin [Sergei Naryshkin, director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, SVR] and his SVR are now digging the ground to prove that they secretly created nuclear weapons there. Damn, now they are insisting on what we have studied and dismantled for a long time: you cannot take evidence here on your knee, and the presence of specialists and uranium (Ukraine has a lot of depleted isotope 238) is nothing. There the production cycle is such that you cannot do it imperceptibly. You can't even make a "dirty" bomb imperceptibly, but the fact that its old nuclear power plants can produce weapons-grade plutonium (plants like REB-1000 produce it in trace amounts as a "by-product" of the reaction) - so the Americans introduced such control there with the participation of the IAEA, that sucking on the topic is stupid.

Do you know what will happen in a week? Well, even after two. Now we will be so covered that we will begin to miss the hungry 90s. As the auction closed, Nabiullina [Central Bank of Russia President] seemed to be taking normal steps, but all this is like plugging a hole in a dam with a finger. She will still break through, and even stronger. Nothing will be decided in 3, 5 or 10 days.

Kadyrov [Ramzan Kadyrov, the president of Chechnya] hits his helmet for a reason: they have their own adventures there. He created for himself the image of the most influential and invincible. And if he falls once, he will be felled by his own people. He will no longer be the owner of the winning team.

Let's go over there. Syria. "The guys will resist, everything will end in Ukraine, and there in Syria we will once again strengthen everything in positions." And now, at any moment, they can wait there for the contingent to run out of resources, and such heat will set in… Turkey blocks the straits, transporting supplies there by plane, is like heating an oven with money.

Keep in mind that all of this is happening at the same time, we don't even have time to put it all together in one heap. We have a situation, like in Germany in 43-44. At first right away. Sometimes I am already lost because of this excess of work, sometimes it seems that everything was a dream and it was a dream, that everything is as before.

In prisons, by the way, it will be worse. Now the nuts will begin to tighten so that to the bloody ichor. Everywhere. To be honest, purely technically, this is still the only chance to maintain the situation: we are already in full mobilization mode. But you can't stay on a regimen like that for long, and we have ambiguity with the timing and it's only going to get worse for now. From the mobilization, the management always goes astray. Yes, and imagine: you can run a hundred meters in one go, but it's bad to go a marathon distance and jerk with all your might. Here we rush into the Ukrainian question, as if we were running a hundred meters, and enter a cross-country marathon.

And that's what I'm talking about very, very briefly.

From the cynic, I will only add that I do not think that VV Putin will press the red button to destroy the whole world.

First of all, there is more than one person making a decision, at least someone will jump. And there are a lot of people there, there is no "one man red button".

Second, there is some doubt that everything is working successfully there. Experience shows that the greater the transparency and control, the easier it is to identify deficiencies. And where it is not clear who controls and how, but always reports bravery - everything is always wrong there. I'm not sure if the red button system works as advertised. Also, the plutonium load must be changed every 10 years.

Thirdly, and this is the most vile and sad thing, I personally do not believe in the willingness to sacrifice of a person [he means Putin] who does not allow the members of the Federation Council to approach, but his representatives and ministers closest. For fear of the coronavirus or an attack, it doesn't matter. If you are afraid to let the most trusted people get close to you, how dare you destroy yourself and even your loved ones?

In any case, ask, but I can't answer for several days. We are in a rush mode, and there are more and more tasks. In general, our reports are animated, but everything flies in pi_du [¿?]".

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On the state of mind of this member of the FSB, Osechkin comments: "Never before has this Gulagu.net source spoken swear words, written short and direct. But even now he…" Whether the data provided by this FSB source is true, what it reveals is a great confusion in the Russian intelligence service and poor planning of the invasion of Ukraine, something that was already demonstrated by the fact that Today, March 6, the day that the Russian plans captured by the Ukrainians indicated as the end of the operation, the Russian forces are still a long way from achieving their objectives.