Overestimating the PP in underestimating Vox, fueling a dangerous strategy

The role of GAD3 in the frustrating result of the center-right in the Spanish elections

General elections were held in Spain yesterday, with a very uncertain result, since the center-right has not achieved an absolute majority.

The three most likely scenarios in Spain after the general elections of July 23
PP vs Vox: the difference between repealing 'Sanchism' and repealing socialism in Spain

Sánchez could remain in power with the support of the separatists

The official results can be consulted here. At the moment, with 100% of the votes counted, the PP has 136 seats, the PSOE 122, Vox 33 and the communists Sumar 31. The sum of PP and Vox does not achieve the 176 seats needed to have an absolute majority. Thus, we are in the first of the probable scenarios that I warned about yesterday. Of the three that I mentioned, it was the worst for Spain, because as I warned, this scenario opens the door for Pedro Sánchez to continue in power paying a very high price for the support of his separatist allies, a price that would put our constitutional framework at serious risk.

The role of GAD3, a survey company related to the PP, in this result

There are many readings that can be done about what happened yesterday. I want to make one in particular: the role played by a polling company, GAD3, in this frustrating result of the center-right. The president of that company is Narciso Michavila, brother of José María Michavila, who was Minister of Justice with José María Aznar. The president of GAD3 is a man close to the PP: he was an electoral adviser to Pablo Casado and with the arrival of Feijóo to the presidency of the party, far from diminishing, his influence in the leadership of the PP has increased.

Since 2021, Vox has been accusing GAD3 of fattening its polls to favor the PP and harming the party chaired by Santiago Abascal. In April 2022, in response to a GAD3 survey for Abc, a newspaper closely related to the PP, Vox stated: "A few months before the elections, it publishes false polls to guide the vote. And the media buy them. Then it always fails, as the leaders who are no longer around and who only won in the Gad3 polls can remember." Vox gave several failed GAD3 estimates as an example for the 2018 Andalusian elections, the 2019 general elections, the 2021 Catalan elections and the 2022 elections in Castilla y León.

The estimates that GAD3 has been publishing since March

In the case of the general elections held yesterday, this has been the route taken by the GAD3 polls in relation to the results of the PP and Vox:

Let us remember that Sánchez announced the general elections on May 29, one day after the electoral defeat of the left in the local and regional elections. Since that date, GAD3 has published higher results for the PP and lower ones for Vox than the vast majority of other polling companies.

An excess of confidence that led the PP to want to liquidate Vox

These inflated results for the PP and deflated results for Vox have generated an excess of confidence in the leadership of the Popular Party and in its related media, which have fueled a dangerous strategy, consisting of underestimating the possibilities of the left. It cannot be said that nobody noticed the risk that this entailed: on May 31, Iván Espinosa de los Monteros warned about this danger, but his message did not it was useless. Encouraged by the GAD3 polls, the PP and its related media launched to try to achieve an absolute majority by liquidating Vox.

The role of some media related to the PP in this strategy

This strategy translated into clear attempts to demoralize Vox voters, even at the cost of causing them to demobilize and not vote. The Abc newspaper, which has been publishing the GAD3 polls, joined this strategy, as did another newspaper closely related to the PP, La Razón. But without a doubt, the one who made extreme efforts to feed that strategy was Federico Jiménez Losantos, director of esRadio and Libertad Digital, with one of the worst waves of insults, hoaxes, defamation and attacks that Vox has suffered in the media during this electoral campaign.

After weeks dedicated to that campaign against Vox, on July 13, in an interview-massage with Feijóo, Jiménez Losantos bet on 160 seats for the PP and 30 for Vox. The president of the PP smiled with satisfaction and said: "it's not bad." Jiménez Losantos, in a flattering tone, added: "And maybe it could still rise."

The PP tried more to annul Vox than to throw out Sánchez

Listening to these unreal messages, some in the PP already dreamed of an absolute majority and getting rid of Vox, and they focused their efforts on that instead of focusing on ousting Sánchez, whom Feijóo even offered him a pact so that he would continue to govern even if the PP and Vox had 176 seats or more, but the PSOE remained ahead of the PP. Feijóo conveyed the idea that he would rather agree with Sánchez than agree with Vox. Sánchez has ended up benefiting from this clumsy strategy of the PP.


Photo: Partido Popular.

Don't miss the news and content that interest you. Receive the free daily newsletter in your email:

Opina sobre esta entrada:

Debes iniciar sesión para comentar. Pulsa aquí para iniciar sesión. Si aún no te has registrado, pulsa aquí para registrarte.