The right wins the elections for the fourth time but without a sufficient majority

Poland could be governed by an alliance of partners of the Popular Party and socialists

This past Sunday legislative elections were held in Poland, a country that has become a reference for European conservatives.

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The IPSOS survey, awaiting official scrutiny

At the moment the official scrutiny has not yet been completed (at the time of writing these lines he is going for 31.66% of the votes), but according to an Ipsos poll, for the third time in a row, the right, the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość party (PiS, Law and Justice, partner of Vox) would have won the elections, with 36.8% and 200 seats in the Sejm (Parliament). Four years ago it obtained 43.6% and 235 seats.

In turn, the Platforma Obywatelska (PO, Citizen Platform), headed by Donald Tusk and the main Polish partner of the European People's Party, would obtain 31.6% of the votes and 163 seats.

Third place would go to Trzecia Droga (Third Way), a coalition of Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (PSL, Polish People's Party, partner of the European People's Party) and Polska 2050 (partner of the center-left group Renovar Europe). It would have 13% of the votes and 55 seats.

In fourth place would be the leftist coalition Nowa Lewica (New Left), made up of several socialist and far-left parties. Its main party is the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (SLD, Alliance of the Democratic Left), Polish partner of the PSOE and heir to the single party of the communist dictatorship that disappeared in 1989. This coalition would have 8.6% of the votes and 30 seats.

Finally, the Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość (Freedom and Independence Confederation), a coalition of parties of various kinds that includes libertarians, monarchists, nationalists and others. This coalition has been trying to gain a foothold on the right with an openly anti-Ukrainian speech and anti-American very typical of the far right. Although it aspired to more, the Konfederacja would obtain 6.3% of the votes and 12 seats.

Tusk could govern with the socialists: they were already in coalition in 2019

If the data from that survey is confirmed, Poland's political orientation could radically change. Last night Donald Tusk already felt like the winner despite coming second, as he takes for granted the support of Trzecia Droga and also that of Nowa Lewica. Some will believe that it would be an unnatural alliance, but these parties were already in coalition in the 2019 European elections, after which the European People's Party and the socialists reedited their coalition to control community institutions. A coalition that has promoted blatant political persecution against Poland's conservative government while has remained silent in the face of attacks on the rule of law by the leftist government of Spain.

An ideological turn that could lead Poland to a political crisis

A Polish government led by Donald Tusk would return Poland to Germany's political orbit, which would end the relevant role that Poland has assumed in Europe with the conservative government of Mateusz Morawiecki. Ideologically, the new government would add Poland to the agenda of abortion, mass immigration and gender ideology, in line with what socialist and popular governments have done in other countries. To achieve this, Tusk would have to assault the Polish Constitutional Court, which three years ago he put a stop to abortion in the country, in a decision responded to with street riots of the left that were supported by the members of the Popular Party.

To this we must add that the president of the Republic of Poland will continue to be Andrzej Duda (of the PiS) at least until 2025, when new presidential elections will be held. All these ingredients indicate that Poland is heading towards a considerable political crisis, something that will benefit its great enemy: Russia. Putin's regime has been trying for many years to generate instability in Poland to weaken it, and now the Polish allies of the current European Commission could make the Russian dictator's dreams come true.


Photo: Radek Pietruszka / PAP. Donald Tusk, president of Platforma Obywatelska, main Polish partner of the European People's Party.

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