The setback of the Russian Army could end up causing internal problems to Putin

Three months of Russian invasion of Ukraine: the reasons to affirm the failure of Russia

The invasion ordered by Putin and started on February 24 is now three months old. A good time to take stock of what has happened so far.

Ukraine has captured almost 1,300 Russian military vehicles in 12 weeks of invasion
Russia already lost more than 3,600 vehicles in 11 weeks in Ukraine: these are their types

The initial objectives that the Kremlin had set in Ukraine

It is not always easy to determine what the outcome of a war will be while it is still going on, but there are solid reasons for the resounding failure of Russia, and specifically Putin, in his attempt to invade Ukraine, subjugate the entire country and destroy their military potential. I mention these three things because, as the weeks have gone by, the Kremlin has been reducing its objectives and Russian propagandists have done the same, in an attempt to cynically present us with failures as successes.

We must remember that on February 24, Putin declared that his purpose was to “demilitarize” and “denazify” Ukraine, that is, to invade it completely and turn it into a Russian puppet state. To this end, in the first hours of the invasion, Russia deployed troops at the Hostomel Airport in Kiev and launched a multi-column ground attack, one of its objectives being the capture of the Ukrainian capital. Some analysts, including some retired military men, assumed that Ukraine would be defeated in a few days.

Russia’s change of strategy in the face of the failure of the invasion

However, the Ukrainians offered a tenacious resistance to the invaders, in such a way that the Russian operations began to last longer than expected. One month after the invasion, Russia had not yet taken Kiev and had lost as many soldiers in the Ukraine as the USSR lost in Afghanistan in a year, and that is if we trust the official casualty figures published by the Kremlin (everything indicates that the real ones are much higher). In view of the failure, on March 25 Russia announced a change in strategy to concentrate on the Donbass, giving up Kiev. Among the causes of the Russian failure was the poor planning of the invasion, the logistical and maintenance problems of its vehicles and the low morale of its troops.

The weeks went by, and despite the change in strategy, the objectives continued to be unfulfilled. Two months after the invasion, the Russians still hadn’t completed the taking of Donbass and had already lost more than 500 tanks, out of a total of 3,129 military vehicles lost.

The strategic and economic failure of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

To the military failure in Ukraine, a strategic failure had to be added: a reinforced NATO whose doors are knocked on by Finland and Sweden, traditionally neutral countries but which, out of fear of Russia, have decided to seek shelter in the Atlantic Alliance.

Let us also add the economic failure, with Russia subjected to strong sanctions that are seriously harming its economy and in particular its industry, including the military, and Russia drifting towards a pure and simple dictatorship, entranced by a nostalgic discourse of the Union Soviet that has resulted in the imposition of communist flags and statues of Lenin in the occupied areas of Ukraine, where the invaders are trying to eliminate the Ukrainian language and culture, as well as the civil rights of the invaded.

The Kremlin, totally removed from reality

Despite its failures, the Kremlin, removed from reality as if believing the lies of its propaganda apparatus, has maintained its imperialist and warmongering rhetoric as if everything was smooth sailing, threatening Finland, Sweden, Moldova and Poland, and showing that Russia has become the biggest security threat in Europe and that it is governed by a fanatic totally alienated from reality. That evidence has led Western countries to send more and more weapons to Ukraine, further helping to foil Putin’s plans.

Putin’s hitlerian strategy gives Ukraine more reasons to resist

Against this background, the Russian dictator is taking revenge for his failures just as Hitler did: massively attacking civilian targets, with no other purpose than to impose terror among the Ukrainian people, but ensuring that Ukraine maintains a high fighting morale, because they know that a surrender and a defeat would imply being erased from the map, seeing their culture destroyed and their language prohibited, and being enslaved by Putin’s Russia. While the Russian soldiers have not lost anything in Ukraine, the Ukrainians are fighting for their land, their freedom and their families, in short: for their survival as a Nation.

The situation of the invasion today

As for today, in three months Russia has already lost almost 700 tanks, that is, an average of 232 tanks a month. Despite this, it has not managed to take Kiev, it has had to withdraw from the Kharkov region and it has not yet managed to occupy all of Donbass, with disasters such as the crossing of the Donets River two weeks ago (with 32 Russian armored vehicles lost in a single Ukrainian attack). The invaders are losing huge numbers of vehicles and Ukraine is capturing many of them, so that Russia has become their main (unwitting) supplier of war material.

In the Donbass, a region that Russia still does not completely dominate, the invaders are adopting a practice of total destruction, with massive artillery and missile attacks against dozens of towns. Russian propaganda claimed that it was going to “liberate” the Donbass, but instead it is razing it to the ground, thereby alienating the Russian-speaking population who might otherwise have sympathized with the invaders.

Time plays against Russia

Right now, an encouraging result for Russia would be to settle for the initial situation of this invasion, that is, the Crimean peninsula and the areas it occupied in the Donbass region. The more time passes, the more failures Russia reaps, the more encouraged Ukraine will be to recover the territories occupied in this invasion and also in the one in 2014. International law is on their side, and thanks to Russia, Ukraine now has more allies than ever to help him kick the Russians out of its borders.

To this table must be added the criminal responsibilities that dozens of countries are claiming against Russia for its war crimes and against human rights in Ukraine, to which must be added the drama of the millions of Ukrainians, mostly women and children who have had to leave their country. Many would no longer be content with Russia withdrawing from Ukraine: they will demand compensation be paid and criminals brought to justice.

The internal problems that Putin could have due to his failure in Ukraine

Let us add, finally, that the loss of prestige of the Russian Army – outdated, poorly directed and unmotivated – and its serious losses in Ukraine may cause great internal problems for Russia in the future, encouraging some of the republics that make up the Russian Federation to choose the path of independence, as happened after the disappearance of the USSR in 1991. Putin’s dictatorial drift could aggravate these internal tensions, even opening the door to attempts to remove him from power by force, by the same military whom he the dictator has sent Ukraine to die, with a disregard for their lives matched only by that shown by Stalin in World War II.

Photo: Ukraine Weapons Tracker. A destroyed Russian T-72B3(M) tank in Makariv, Kiev Oblast, Ukraine.

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